2010 will be the chance for the Republicans to recapture the majority in the upper chamber. Outgoing Deputy Senate Majority Leader Thomas Libous said that his caucus is committed to recapturing the chamber in 2010. This is very important considering New York may be losing a Congressional seat in the next census and redistribution needs to be done fairly.

In related news, recently arrested Democratic Senator Hiram Monserrate may be convicted of assault after all. Officials claim to have have him on a security camera stabbing his girlfriend with the broken glass. The incident, which led to 20 stiches near her eye, is being called an “accident” according to Monserrate. According to Monserrate, the tape will exonerate him. According to local law enforcement, the recording will show Monserrate assaulting his girlfriend and dragging her around while she clings to her eye with a towel, him tossing her handbag down a garbage chute, and an instance where his girlfriend knocks on a neighbor’s door asking for help. A neighbor said that she “…heard a lot of crying and then she ran down the stairs screaming and rang on my bell frantically, three times.” The neighbor found a bloody towell on the stairs when she went out into the hallway. If convicted, Monserrate will be automatically removed from office and change the Senate numbers to 31 Democrats to 30 Republicans, possibly leading to a special election to replace him and possibly changing the leadership in the Senate. If Monserrate is replaced by a Republican due to backlash from his actions, the count changes to 31 to 31 and negotiations can start all over again for Senate control. There is currently a standing motion to have Monserrate dismissed until the charges are cleared.

The 2008 election cycle saw the loss of enough seats that the Democrats will probably gain the majority. There are a few problems for the incumbent leader of the Democratic Senate Caucus, Malcolm Smith. There is still one undecided Senate seat. The race between incumbent Republican State Senator Frank Padavan and his Democratic challangerJames Gennaro is down to a 500 ballot margin with the incumbent currently leading. 2,000 more ballots may be counted, which could completely change the election. Three Democratic, Latino State Senators, dubbed the “Gang of Three,” have withheld their support for Smith citing their opposition to same-sex marriage and their desire to see a Latino in a high ranking position in the Senate. A deal was almost reached, but fell through at the last minute. Also causing problems was the recent arrest of Democratic Senator-elect Hiram Monserrate. He was charged with assault for reportedly stabbing his girlfriend in the face with a broken bottle. These five seats will determine the balance of the State Senate.

If Monserrate is convicted, he will automatically be removed from his post and a special election will have to be held. One of the “Gang of Three,” Pedro Espada, had run as a Republican for State Senate in the past and may have ties to the Republican caucus. Four seats could change this entire situation making this a solid, Republican State Senate. The next election cycle is 2010, State Senate terms in New York are two years.